Solid State Lighting Net - LIGHTimes News - LED Industry Supply Chain and Applications News

January 2, 2009...A few years from now, when the hindsight becomes clearer, 2008 will likely be noted as "the kickoff" for the solid state lighting revolution. This doesn't mean that widespread adoption occurred, or even that LED technology has become suitable for every one of its potential applications, but some key milestones have taken place that make things much more believably "now" in the eyes of the buyers.

First among the key milestones are the finalization and effectivity of important standards, most notably IES' LM-79 and LM-80, along with the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Star specification for solid state lighting devices. LM-79 provides the framework for validating the performance and characteristics of an LED-based luminaire (which is the mechanical/decorative "fixture" plus the "bulb" or light engine that makes the light). With it, manufacturers can validate their claims for overall light output and efficiency (lumen efficacy), as well as the color temperature and color rendering characteristics of the luminaire. LM-80 compliments that specification by providing test and validation procedures to characterize the lifetime of the LED itself. So far, it can only be used to specify the characteristics of color shift and fading ("lumen depreciation") during the testing time itself, which is in the neighborhood of 1 year (typically 6000-8000 hours).

The DOE Energy Star specification brings the two together by proving an all-encompassing "mark" (approval) that provides a buyer some confidence that the lighting efficiency, characteristics, quality and lifetime offer useful improvements over the incandescent and fluorescent technologies that LED lighting will ultimately replace. It's not perfect, there are a few holes here and there, and there are some ways to "cheat", but both the market and the expected enforcement processes should work fairly quickly to keep the bar high enough that more often than not, buyers get what they're expecting.

For 2009, we expect the industry and consumer awareness of the various specs, especially Energy Star for SSL, to steadily increase. That should help avoid some of types of "evaluation" surprises we saw in 2008. From our own experience, one manufacturer provided one each of an R-20 and an R-30 type flood lamp replacement for us to take a look at. With our simple plug-in "Kill-A-Watt" tester we have, the results showed that one of the lamps was likely the 20-watt version in the 16-watt box (two models are available, so we'll assume the dot was in the wrong box on the label), that both had mediocre power factors (around .5 to .6, which is what we see on most CFLs), the light was harsh and the color rendering poor. We believe the manufacturer is sincere in their intentions to offer a quality product, but it really typified the 2008 reality where there weren't common measures to shoot for. When provided the feedback, they were a bit taken aback and replied, "We didn't realize your evaluation would be so comprehensive. We expected you would merely be checking to see if they looked OK, would fit where standard reflector lamps do, and that they were bright enough to do the job." I wonder how surprised they would have been to see a stack of returns with a refund request and "discontinue our purchase agreement" had the feedback come from paying consumers back through a major chain supplier such as Wal-Mart or Home Depot.

While another key milestone can most easily be summed up as "bright enough", 2008 saw us hit that measure along with the quality of light being delivered for a number of applications. Exterior lighting, especially for parking structures, parking lots and street lights were the most "visible" manifestation of that progress where a number of pilot programs kicked off. Thankfully, they were pilot programs, as they allowed the kind of real-world sample size that triggers real-world failures. Failures are good (at least in pilot programs), as long as all the parties involved are prepared for them, and everyone understood from the outset who had what responsibility should failures occur. Manufacturers pointing fingers at "suspect installation" doesn't help, and one assumes they would be intimately involved with those installations, on-site, through the process. From the buzz that's come our way, there seems to have been some initial shock and disbelief that something could fail, but once the realization settled in, everyone got down to business to properly analyze things and improve the product.

While there are lots of smaller steps, the final big milestone we observed came from efficiency improvements taking us far enough along that LED-lighting could provide a real business case (payback and return-on-investment) for industrial/public facility and some commercial applications. ROI's have gotten there for 24x7 "troffer" type applications (2 x 2 foot and 2 x 4 foot fixtures, currently served by fluorescent lamps). For usage rates of less than 24 hours, one needed only to look beyond year 2-3 of the traditional fluorescent/HID installation for the real baseline comparison for actual delivered foot-candles once some lamps begin to fail, and most have dimmed and accumulated dust. When 20% of the tubes are awaiting replacement at any given time, an LED solution can be planned which delivers as much light with better quality and less maintenance, with not only a payback, but also a real ROI.

It's important to note that we're talking about "high quality" solutions that are not exorbitantly priced, and I'd be surprised to find anyone able to name more than 4-5 manufacturers that can actually fit that description right now. Unfortunately, there are probably dozens to a hundred companies claiming to offer such solutions, with little real help being available to buyers to separate the good from the not good. Of course, that's the premise of the Solid State Lighting Design Summit, which saw its premier in New Jersey last August. Buyers, specifiers, luminaire and enabling technology providers can mark their calendars for early August in New York, and October in LA to tap into the 2009 editions. Attendees make targeted connections that lead to real solutions and not costly experiments (and we all know 2009 will not be a year where much experimentation fits into the business plan).

So all that raises the bar and sets 2009 up to be a great year for the industry. Yes, we'll lose some quality producers that didn't have the financial means to make it through the rough patch, but their innovation and capabilities will simply be re-capitalized in someone else's hands. Hopefully, we'll lose a large number of low-quality producers from the combined effect of standards-based accountability and stubbornly sticking to a head-in-the-sand business approach if they continue to be surprised that the market is demanding LED-based lighting be a better solution, not just a comparable one.

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