Lightimes Online News and Resources for the LED and Solid State Lighting Industry and its Supply Chain

October 16, 2008...With a headline like that, one would assume that job #1 is to make sure you turn the "huh?" into clarity quickly. Having discarded procrastination from elsewhere in my life, I feel the need for a slight backslide, so don't expect first-paragraph clarity. Just dive in and we'll chase some LED industry-related, general economic, Energy Star rabbits for a few minutes. If we're lucky, we'll catch those rabbits by the end of the column. We'll start with a continuing thought from last week that "incumbent lighting technologies" (i.e. CFLs, linear fluorescents, HIDs, etc.) are not held to even the most basic standards and scrutiny that LEDs are being subjected to. That's fine, we're the better candidate, and we can stand the scrutiny...bring it on. But it is important to clearly understand and convey that solid state lighting is indeed being characterized differently than the technologies that came before.

In our last column, "Energy Star Goes Live", we wrote that:

The second big deal in the Energy Star criteria will be the requirement for luminaire manufacturers to validate their efficiency claims... Version 1.0 here is more about quality and living up to expectation, than about performance. That's pretty easy to figure out based on the fact most of the criteria are based on efficacies of 24-29 lumens/watt, compared to the CFL incumbents that are running around 60 lm/w. The "tough" criteria are reserved for the downlights, that set the bar at 35 lm/w.

With regard to that thought, we got mail! (Which is always exciting in the business editorial world... with around 1 million monthly page views across our "narrowcast" online publications, we may get one note if we get it right, and maybe three when we get it really wrong). In this case, it was several notes suggesting we got it right, with the addition of a detailed one from none other than Dr. James Brodrick, who is the lighting program manager for the US Department of Energy, Building Technologies Program (www.netl.doe.gov/ssl). In his note, Dr. Brodrick correctly points out that an often-missed point is that the incumbents are measured in terms of their "source efficacy" (source=bulb) while Energy Star for LEDs is rightly oriented strictly on the overall luminaire performance. The full letter is worth a read, includes some very descriptive charts, and we strongly recommend that you take a look at it. A summary statement near the conclusion drives it home nicely:

Of the 14 ENERGY STAR-qualified compact fluorescent and linear residential light fixtures tested, the actual lumen output of the fixture was anywhere from 23–67 percent lower than the manufacturer’s published figures for lamp output. As a consequence, the lighting buyer expecting a certain amount of light (based on the packaging information) will find that the fixture’s light output is much lower than expected. Picture the buyer expecting 900 lumens of output from a fluorescent downlight, who in reality only receives 346 lumens. For the more technically inclined, the efficacy drops from 69 to 27.1 lumens per watt.

The takeaway? Not only have we learned from the mistakes of allowing CFL into the marketplace without the proper specification and performance accountability, but we've also learned how to not fool ourselves by touting the efficiency of the source compared to the overall efficiency of the luminaire. Fluorescent and HID fixture manufacturers may want to take this as a warning that as LED lighting continues to increase in cost-effectiveness, they are going to find themselves being attacked for their "lack of full disclosure" regarding the actual luminaire efficiency. Their failure to respond with better data could result in a rapid erosion of their credibility. The LED industry will be pleased to assist in that effort, I'm sure.

LIGHTimes Re-Launches... LEDs Provide a Safe Haven Investment

In crazy economic times, it's obviously important to "do something... anything" (well, maybe not so important, but it's what we do anyway). While one can proceed without a plan in that process, we actually had one for our online publications and are pleased to introduce to you the re-vamped LIGHTimes Online. LIGHTimes was formerly the LED industry news page hiding under the umbrella of the Solid State Lighting Net website. SSLnet still shows up at the parent domain, but we have re-launched the full site to allow better access to the news summaries and a choice of "channels" that target in on the information most pertinent to you. When you visit the new home page at www.LIGHTimes.com, you'll find a look and feel very similar to SSL Design, but with the focus as it has always been, on the LED supply chain, from materials to packaged devices and modules. There are also quick links dedicated to the variety of application news. Applications such as displays and backlighting, transportation, medical, cameras, etc. are part of the LIGHTimes site, while the links to general and architectural lighting applications will take you to the Solid State Lighting Design website, which is focused on the apps and enabling technology that relates to the built environment. Give some clicks on the new top menu and you'll probably find yourself just the right "channel home page" to set into your favorites/bookmarks.

So how does this all tie into the "safe haven" investment? Pure opinion here from someone with more economic education than they care to confess (with the non-disclaimer that I have no holdings in any LED or lighting companies): The LED-industry (including all its applications) and the subset "solid state lighting" industry (general/architectural lighting) are long-term investment winners. Fundamentals such as ingenuity, innovation and a winner's spirit count for a lot, and when you add those to the facts that LED technology is still in the first half of its capability curve, and that it will contribute greatly to improving overall economic efficiency and quality of life, it can't lose. Picking the winners is a little trickier, of course, and I won't claim to be able to divine that answer. A look at the current stock performances tells us that there are ebbs and flows of optimism and pessimism, as well as drags on the suppliers who aren't pure-play in the LED arena. Diversification is great when all their markets are strong, and a bit the opposite when their other markets sag. Some examples include players that have their LED and SSL components likely pulling them up, but their consumer markets pulling them down, or others that supply LED equipment (up) and other semiconductor markets (down). As an industry, we have a winner on our hands and personally, I tend to reject the notion of "tough times" when it comes to this market. When you present apples to apples in real lighting system efficiency and delivered-lumen output (Ah-ha! It all ties together now...) it's a compelling story. If a commercial property operator is not planning on shuttering the building, when we show them a 2-3 year payback and longer term ROI on their energy and maintenance, they'll buy. Show a fluorescent luminaire manufacturer a reliable, high-quality, long-life white LED module, they'll buy. For every share of stock being sold on the way down, someone is buying on the bet it will be coming back up (which is why Warren Buffet has added something like $8B to his net worth in the last 40 days to propel him past Bill Gates into the #1 wealth slot in the US). Stick with the LED industry and you're hanging with the winners.

EU to Ban Incandescent Bulbs
SSLDesign News Staff

Creator of First Visible LED Inducted into National Inventor's Hall of Fame
LIGHTimes Staff

Formosa Epitaxy Gets Ready to Produce Higher Brightness LEDs
LIGHTimes Staff

Sainsbury's Installs LED Luminaires for Freezer Cabinets
SSLDesign News Staff

Osram Releases New TopLEDs for Brighter LCD Display Backlighting
LIGHTimes Staff

Taiwan LED Makers Buy Back Stock as Economic Safeguard
LIGHTimes Staff

Valeo Produces Optics to Diffuse LED-based Rear Lighting in Volvo XC60
LIGHTimes Staff

SemiLEDs Orders Multiple Ultratech Lithography Systems for LED Manufacturing
LIGHTimes Staff

Tekcore Aims to be Among Top Three Suppliers of LED Wafers and Chips in Taiwan
LIGHTimes Staff

LEDs, Fluorescents, LIGHTimes Relaunches and Economic Safe Havens
Tom Griffiths - Publisher

EU to Ban Incandescent BulbsSSLDesign News Staff

Creator of First Visible LED Inducted into National Inventor's Hall of FameLIGHTimes Staff

Formosa Epitaxy Gets Ready to Produce Higher Brightness LEDsLIGHTimes Staff

Sainsbury's Installs LED Luminaires for Freezer CabinetsSSLDesign News Staff

Osram Releases New TopLEDs for Brighter LCD Display BacklightingLIGHTimes Staff

Taiwan LED Makers Buy Back Stock as Economic SafeguardLIGHTimes Staff

Valeo Produces Optics to Diffuse LED-based Rear Lighting in Volvo XC60LIGHTimes Staff

SemiLEDs Orders Multiple Ultratech Lithography Systems for LED ManufacturingLIGHTimes Staff

Tekcore Aims to be Among Top Three Suppliers of LED Wafers and Chips in TaiwanLIGHTimes Staff

LEDs, Fluorescents, LIGHTimes Relaunches and Economic Safe HavensTom Griffiths - Publisher